Adequate Yearly Progress: Leaving Explanation Behind: is It Possible to Predict Which Schools Will Make Adequate Yearly Progress?

The purpose of this research was to determine if the variables included in the Mississippi Report Card utilized for the calculation of AYP can be used to predict with accuracy greater than that which can be attributed to chance, whether or not Mississippi LEAs will attain adequate yearly progress in reading and math using the logistic regression technique. An additional goal of this study is to identify whether the inclusion of an additional variable pertaining to the proportion of teachers in each Mississippi LEA with a one-year teaching certificate can notably enhance the explanatory power of the logistic regression models. This study demonstrated that using the variables utilized for the calculation of AYP, a predictive model can be successfully utilized to classify Mississippi LEAs that will and will not attain AYP in reading and math with an accuracy greater than that which can be attributed to chance. This study also established that the inclusion of a variable corresponding to the percentage of teachers in a LEA with one-year educator licenses does not add to the predictive accuracy of the model.